A proper look at your six months of trading, what the line was already doing before you took it on, and the plan we'd build for the next six. Nothing here is locked in. This is a conversation to help shape the next six months.
We sat with the Shopify export you sent through and walked the line month by month. We wanted to come into today with a clear read on what's actually happening, what was already happening before you took it on, and what we'd want to do about it together. None of this is locked. It's a starting point.
Your six months under the brand pulled in just under $201K across Shopify. The same six months a year earlier (still under the previous owners) pulled in roughly $369K.
Worth saying upfront: the line was already moving before you walked in. Looking at the six months immediately before you took ownership, that period was already down on the year before it. So what you're seeing in your own numbers isn't a brand you've broken. It's a brand that was on a downward trend when you inherited it, and a six-month window where the activity needed to lift it back up didn't happen.
That's actually useful, because it tells us what the work is. The brand is still pulling in revenue. The audience exists. What's missing is the structured activity around the seasonal moments. That's a fixable thing.
From May to October 2025, while the business was still under the previous owners, sales were running about 25% below the same months the year before. July 2025 alone was down 52% on July 2024.
Not flagging this to make excuses. Flagging it because it changes what we're working with. You didn't inherit a brand at its peak. You inherited one already losing altitude.
The drop didn't accelerate sharply when you took over. It carried on at roughly the same rate of decline that was already in motion. December was the softest single month (down 61% on the year prior), and Jan, Feb and March all sat in a tight band around 50% below the year before.
The fair read: there wasn't a clear paid-media plan running through the season that could have changed the direction. That's where the next six months can look different.
Each of your months, alongside the same month a year earlier so the comparison is apples to apples. Sorted in trading order from your first month forward.
| Month | Your Revenue | Year Earlier | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | $52,766 | $78,285 | -33% | Your first month. Trading carried through. |
| Dec 2025 | $22,972 | $59,339 | -61% | Pre-Christmas softness. |
| Jan 2026 | $23,067 | $44,705 | -48% | Summer EOSS window. The one you flagged. |
| Feb 2026 | $53,479 | $107,884 | -50% | Trading momentum didn't carry from Jan. |
| Mar 2026 | $21,180 | $43,750 | -52% | AW26 launch month. |
| Apr 2026 | $27,457 | $34,934 | -21% | Smallest gap of the six. AW26 starting to pull. |
Your AOV across the six months sits at around $124. That's slightly down on the prior period (around $140 for the same six months a year earlier), but the bigger story is in the order count. You did 1,622 orders against 2,633 a year earlier. The gap is much more about how many people are coming through than what they're spending when they do. That's exactly what new-customer prospecting solves.
April 2026 was down just 21% on April 2025, the smallest gap in your six months. That's AW26 starting to find its feet. It suggests the AW26 range itself is working. There just wasn't enough new-customer activity around the launch to give it a proper start.
You mentioned in your email the EOSS strategy felt like it should have been targeting return customers. The numbers agree with you. December and January together were the softest pair of months in your trading window (down 56% combined on the year prior), and that's the period that historically does the heaviest volume for this brand.
We had a look at the Meta account. The AW26 launch campaign ran as an Awareness objective rather than a Sales one. It reached just under 121,000 people for $250 of spend, with a ROAS of 0.12. Same budget, set up to drive purchases instead of reach, gives a completely different outcome. That's a structural fix, not a creative one.
Your Retargeting_BAU campaign is producing 248 purchases at $19 each across the audit window. Inside it, the High Intent 30-60D ad set is the workhorse, doing 227 of those at $18.60 each. That's a real engine. Everything else in the Meta account is either retargeting that's stuck in learning, or prospecting that got switched off before AW26. The good news is that engine is still running. We protect it and build around it.
The short version. You inherited a softening line. The six months under you continued at roughly that same trajectory because the structured paid activity around your seasonal windows wasn't running. The brand is still pulling. The AW26 range is starting to work. What's missing is the new-customer engine and the proper launch structure. That's where the next section goes.
We spent time inside the Meta and Google accounts before today. Nothing here is a teardown. There's some genuinely strong work running underneath everything else, and a few specific things that, if we tidied them up, would change what the next six months can do. Everything below is framed the way your email asked for it: controlled, measured, with performance tied to revenue and ROAS rather than reach or engagement.
Your Retargeting BAU campaign is doing 248 purchases at around $19 each over the last 90 days, with a ROAS of 5.88. Inside it, the High Intent 30-60D ad set is the workhorse, with the dynamic product catalogue ad doing 174 of those purchases at $16.31 each. That's strong, repeat-buyer behaviour holding the account together.
The retargeting on add-to-cart abandoners is also pulling hard for its size, sitting at a 9.97 ROAS. Small budget, but the kind of audience that converts cheaply when you put the right offer in front of them.
The plan doesn't start with a rebuild. Whatever else changes, this engine keeps running, with creative refreshes layered in. We'd protect the budget here first and build the new activity around it, not on top of it.
You mentioned in your email that you have concerns about historical return from Facebook overall, and you'd rather reintroduce prospecting in a measured way alongside retargeting rather than push spend up. That sits at the centre of how we'd approach this one.
Here's what the data shows. Between 21 January and 17 February, your Aro Sales Prospecting campaign brought in 96 purchases on $3,154 of spend, at a 3.92 ROAS. The Auckland-only ad set inside it did 79 of those purchases. The dynamic creative variant was the strongest at 4.51 ROAS.
It got paused right before AW26 launched. So for the moment that mattered most, the audience pipeline that brings new customers in had been switched off. That's a big part of why the AW26 launch couldn't pull as hard as it might have if both engines had been running.
We wouldn't scale prospecting up from where it was. We'd reactivate it at the same kind of budget that produced last time, hold the line, and only push if the ROAS clears your target. If it doesn't, we hold or pull back. Performance gets reviewed weekly against revenue and ROAS, not reach. That's the controlled approach your email asked for.
From 28 March to 1 April, the AW26 launch went out on a Reach objective rather than a Sales one, at $250 of spend. It reached just under 121,000 people. You've told us this was a deliberate choice. You hadn't been seeing Facebook return sales the way you needed it to, so leaning into brand visibility for the launch made sense. That's a fair call to make based on what you'd been watching.
That said, we'd want to take a different approach next time, without arguing the call you made. The Aro Sales Prospecting that ran in January and February did return sales at 3.92 ROAS. So while Meta's overall return had been disappointing, there is a signal in the data that says it can sell for this brand when it's set up to. When prospecting is running alongside a launch on a Sales objective, the reach happens as a by-product. You don't have to choose between being seen and driving purchases.
Rather than asking you to take a leap of faith on Meta for Summer 27, we'd want to use the next three months to prove it out at a measured budget. If prospecting clears your ROAS target consistently, we earn the right to run Summer 27 as a proper Sales launch with a four-week warm-up. If it doesn't, we revisit together and you make the call with real data in hand. The launch playbook is already documented in the content calendar you shared with us, so the structure isn't the question. The question is whether Meta proves it can carry the load.
Inside your Google Ads conversion actions, the Purchase event is firing properly. So your revenue numbers are accurate and your campaigns are optimising toward sales. That's the important part.
But the Add to Basket and Begin Checkout events are both showing as Misconfigured. Page View is showing as Needs attention. None of this affects your sales attribution. What it does mean is Google can't use cart and checkout behaviour to find more buyers like the ones you're already converting, and you don't have cart abandoner audiences to retarget.
Under an hour of setup work. Won't change your reported revenue, but will give Google's optimiser better signals to find new buyers, and unlock cart abandoner audiences for future campaigns. This sits in week one of the plan.
You flagged this in your email and you're right to. Inside your Search Generic NZ campaign, a meaningful share of the budget is going to broad, browse-intent search terms that aren't producing sales: things like generic category searches with no brand intent, and competitor brand names that don't translate into purchases for you.
The campaign isn't broken. Some of the keywords inside it are doing real work, including a small handful of competitor terms that ARE converting at strong returns. The opportunity is keeping those running and cleaning up the rest, so the budget consolidates around the search terms that actually buy.
We'd do a proper search terms audit in week one, identify which terms are converting and which aren't, then restructure the campaign around the productive ones with negatives applied to the rest. No spend lift required. Just the same money working harder. This sits alongside the tracking fix in the first phase, exactly as you described in your email.
You've told us that when new campaigns get launched they reset the Meta learning phase, and you've seen that cost money before. That's a real thing. Three of four ad sets in your retargeting structure are currently sitting in learning limited status, which is exactly the pattern that burns budget without producing returns. So your instinct here is grounded in what you've actually seen happen.
Worth being precise about it though. The learning phase isn't the problem. The problem is launching campaigns without enough budget or audience for them to exit learning. With proper setup, a new Meta campaign typically exits learning in five to seven days and then runs at scale. What you've been seeing is the symptom of fragmented setups (budget spread too thin across too many ad sets), not new campaigns themselves.
You'll see new campaigns mentioned across Sections 3 and 4. The prospecting reactivation, the EOSS push, the Summer 27 launch and the SS27 campaign. We want to be upfront about that because building new campaigns is going to be part of the next six months. The thing we'd do differently is fewer of them, each one properly funded, with enough audience size to clear the learning window in a week.
Before we ever launch a new campaign we'd walk you through: why we're building it, what the budget and audience size needs to be, what we expect the learning window to look like, and what success looks like after it exits. You can always say no. The point is you'd have all the reasoning in front of you, not be told after the fact.
The short version of all six. Protect the Retargeting engine. Reintroduce prospecting carefully, alongside retargeting. Use the next three months to prove Meta out before we commit to a Sales-objective launch for Summer 27. Tidy up the Google tracking signals. Tighten Search Generic NZ around what's converting. And when we do build new campaigns, we build fewer, fund them properly, and walk you through the reasoning each time. That's what shapes the 3-month plan in the next section.
Three months of measured work to fix what's loose, switch back on what was producing, and earn the right to push harder for Summer 27. The plan below holds your budget at roughly where it is now. Any lift comes from results, not commitment. The important shift is that we separate the proof phase from EOSS: May and June test whether Meta can acquire full-price customers profitably, while July uses EOSS to convert warm audiences only. Nothing in here is locked. We'd shape the priorities and timing with you together, but this is where we'd start.
Your current spend across Meta and Google sits at around $130 to $140 a day. The 3-month plan holds at that level. The work in May and June is about proving whether Meta can bring in new customers on full-price product, not on markdown. July then becomes a different job: a short, warm-only EOSS push designed to convert people who were already considering the brand.
Where extra budget would help is reactivating prospecting on Meta. That sits within the existing envelope, just reallocated from where the AW26 Awareness budget was. If prospecting clears your ROAS target consistently across two weeks, we'd talk about a measured 10 to 15% lift, held for a week, then re-evaluated. Not a bigger commitment. A small step you can pull back on if the numbers don't hold.
If prospecting ROAS clears 3.0x for 14 consecutive days, we'd talk about a measured budget lift heading into June's long weekend trading. This is the start of the prospecting proof — we're testing whether Meta can find new customers paying full price, not on discount. If it doesn't clear, we hold and review together.
If the long weekend trades through at or above target ROAS, we'd hold Meta budget at the lifted level into July's EOSS push. If the long weekend underperforms, we hold the line and rework creative before EOSS.
This is the proof phase wrap-up. By end of July you'll have clean evidence in hand — May and June prospecting on full-price product, plus the EOSS warm-audience and VIP playbook running at scale. If the numbers stack up, Path A for Summer 27 becomes a real option. If they don't, we revisit together and you make the call on what August looks like with real data in front of you.
In the proposal we shared with you, we put a recommended spend of $240 to $280 a day combined for the AW26 window. The plan above sits at roughly half that, in line with your email asking for budgets to stay stable while Meta earns its return.
We've held back to your preferred approach in the May, June, July plan above. We're not pushing for the higher number now. The reason we're naming it here is because if May and June prove full-price prospecting can work, and July proves the warm-audience EOSS playbook can convert without training cold buyers on discount, the higher recommendation becomes the conversation for the Summer 27 launch and the SS27 campaign. Not the AW26 sell-through window. The next big moments.
Section 4 picks this up. Either way you'd have three months of real numbers in hand before deciding whether to lift, hold or pull back. That's your call to make, not ours.
We've told you we'd be straight with you on cost, so worth naming this now rather than at invoice time. Most of the plan above sits inside the Growth package you're already paying for. Three pieces sit alongside as project work, and one of them is on us.
The launch and the campaign sit outside the monthly package because they involve coordinated builds rather than optimisation work. The Winter EOSS build sits there too, but we're picking up the cost during the proof phase with our own investment alongside yours. Fixed prices for the two paid builds are in Section 5 of this deck, on the page right after the Look-Ahead. Nothing builds until you've signed off, no auto-added line items, no work that wasn't agreed first.
If for any reason you'd rather not run a paid build on one of these (or both), we'd run them through existing channels and your package covers the optimisation around it. Your call.
The four metrics you asked for in your email, reported in plain English without 40 lines of data to decode. Weekly numbers come on a Tuesday. Monthly review the first week of each new month.
Meta and Google reported separately. Plus a blended figure so you've got one number for the whole thing.
By campaign on both sides. So you can see exactly where each dollar is producing.
Not just attributed revenue. What share of total Shopify sales the paid activity is producing each month.
Each month's revenue against the same month a year earlier. The recovery line you mentioned wanting to track.
Three months. One question. Can we get Meta producing full-price sales again at a measured budget, while protecting what Google is already doing well? And can we use EOSS strategically with warm audiences only? If yes, we head into August with the evidence to commit to a proper Summer 27 launch. If not, we adjust. Either way you'll have real numbers in hand to make the call.
August into October is when the year's biggest opportunities sit. Summer 27 arrives in early August. SS27 follows mid September. October sets up Black Friday. Each of these is a moment where the right activity makes a real difference. The question is what shape that activity takes, and the answer depends on what July's numbers tell us.
Prospecting clears your ROAS target through May and June on full-price product, and July shows the warm-audience EOSS playbook converts without relying on cold discount buyers. The Aro Sales pattern repeats and the engine is producing. This is the path we'd want to be on.
What it unlocks:
Prospecting doesn't clear target consistently on full-price product. The data says Meta isn't paying for itself the way it would need to. That's a valid outcome we'd rather know about than push past.
What it would mean:
Whichever path we're on by August, Summer 27 is the headline event. Stock arrives early in the month, and you mentioned in our conversation wanting 2 to 3 weeks of warm-up before release. We'd push for 4 weeks of proper runway. Here's what that looks like.
Engagement-based content goes live across organic and paid. Building the warm audience pool we'll retarget into during launch week. First teases of Summer 27 colours and silhouettes, no product names yet. On Google, prepare new asset groups for hero SKUs and stage the Shopping feed for the new collection.
Lead generation on Meta to grow the VIP early access list. Email warm-up sequence into your existing VIP group. Product reveal content steps up across organic. Google: brand search budget protected ahead of demand spike, hero product PMax campaign built and ready in draft.
VIP gets first access at the 10% mechanic you've used before. This is the gold mechanic for Meta. Proven repeat buyers, high intent, lower CPA. Dedicated paid layer to the VIP audience plus retargeting on anyone who engaged with the warm-up content from weeks 4 and 3. Google: hero PMax campaign goes live in low-budget learning mode.
Public launch goes live. Prospecting and retargeting both running on Sales objectives (Path A), or Google-led with Meta retargeting only (Path B). Catalogue ads carry the heavy lifting on retargeting. Email sequence to the full database. Google budget consolidates around Summer 27 hero SKUs with PMax scaling on the demand signal.
By September we'd have the Summer 27 launch behind us and proper data on what worked and what didn't. SS27 runs the same warm-up playbook with adjustments. The advantage of running them close together is the campaign inherits everything the launch learned.
Same VIP early access mechanic, same Sales objective on Meta if we're on Path A. Google asset groups built off whatever performed in Summer 27. Faster, sharper, more confident.
October is the carry-through month between SS27 and Black Friday. Quieter for trading mechanics but important for audience growth. Black Friday will be your biggest paid moment of the year and the audiences we build now show up in November's results.
Email list growth, lookalike refresh from Summer 27 and SS27 buyers, creative test programme for Black Friday hooks. Set up the foundation so November's campaigns are firing from the moment the calendar turns.
You asked to be at a recovery stage by November. Worth being straight about what that genuinely takes. The conservative version of this plan gets you most of the way there. The accelerated version closes the rest, but it requires a real spend commitment we'd only make once we've got proof phase numbers in hand. Either way, the call happens end of July with three months of evidence behind us, not today on a guess.
Default version. Proof phase holds budget. Modest lift August onwards if Meta clears 3x. Lower cashflow demand. Full recovery arrives mid-2027.
Same proof phase, then real lift August through November. Summer 27 and SS27 committed to with paid push. Only triggers if proof phase clears. Higher commitment, higher confidence.
We're flagging both now so you've got the full picture going into the cost conversation. You don't choose today. We run May, June, July, then sit down end of July and decide together with real numbers in front of us.
Why we're laying this out now. So you can see what August through October looks like before we get there, not after. The 3-month plan in Section 3 is the proof phase. This section is the payoff window. Either way you'll be making the decisions with real data in hand, not on faith.
Three pieces of work sit outside your monthly package across the next six months. The first one is on us, our investment in making the proof phase work. The other two are the Summer 27 launch and the SS27 campaign, with fixed prices on this page. Nothing else in Sections 3 and 4 costs anything on top of the $1,500 you're already paying.
By July you'll have two months of full-price prospecting data from May and June to look at. The Winter EOSS build is your warm-audience and VIP playbook running at scale — exactly the architecture Summer 27 will need. We've kept it deliberately tight: two ad sets, 1–2 week window, warm audience only. No cold prospecting on discounted product — we're not training new customers to wait for sales, we're using EOSS to convert people who were already considering you at full price. We're building it at no cost to you, with our own investment alongside yours.
★ What we'd buildA note: your existing Google PMax, Search Brand and Shopping campaigns stay active through EOSS, optimised inside your monthly package. The Winter EOSS project specifically covers the new Meta campaign build above.
Our proof-phase investment alongside yours. No catch, no clawback, no "but if you don't book Summer 27."
A coordinated 4-week build around the Summer 27 range launch. Warm-up, VIP early access, public launch and retargeting layered together.
Optional. If you'd rather we ran Summer 27 through existing channels only, your monthly package covers the optimisation around it.
Same playbook applied to SS27, faster because we've got the framework from the Summer 27 launch already built and proven.
Also optional. SS27 priced lower than Summer 27 because the second build is genuinely less work once we've got the playbook from the first.
No commitment required today. If you decide later to run both, the bundle pricing still applies as long as both are booked together. If you want to start with just Summer 27 and decide on SS27 in August once we've seen the proof phase numbers, the standalone prices apply.
The Winter EOSS build is on us. The launch and the campaign above are the only things that would carry a cost beyond your $1,500 monthly package across the next six months. Everything else in the plan (the May and June work, the prospecting reactivation, the tracking fixes, weekly optimisation, reporting and strategy calls) is already covered by what you're paying.
If you book either, we send you a written confirmation with the scope and price, and you sign off before any build work starts. If you decide partway through that you'd rather pull back, we stop the build, and you only pay for the work completed up to that point.
If neither works for your cashflow when the time comes, that's a valid call. We'd run Summer 27 and SS27 through your existing setup instead, optimised as part of your package. Less coordinated, less dedicated paid push, but you wouldn't be paying anything on top.
You've signed on, the package is locked in, and Winter EOSS is coming with us at no cost. The Summer 27 and SS27 builds are your call to make when the time comes. From here, this is the rhythm. Most of what we'd need to start is already in place from the audit phase, we're just confirming we still have it before we begin changing anything.
Most of this you've already given us access to during the audit phase. We're just confirming we still have it and have everything we need before we start changing anything. None of this should take more than 30 minutes of your time.
Meta Business Manager, Google Ads, Google Merchant Center. We currently have viewer-only access from the audit, we'd need this upgraded to editor so we can build and adjust campaigns.
So we can pull revenue and order data for the monthly Shopify-contribution reporting you asked for. Read-only access is plenty.
Your top 8 to 10 SKUs to focus the creative and shopping budget around. You probably know these already, a short list works fine.
Doesn't have to be exact. A ballpark across the range so we can set a sensible ROAS target. Nothing technical, just so we know what's profitable for you.
UGC, product imagery, lifestyle photography. Whatever your designer's been making. We brief from what you already have rather than reinvent it.
To talk through anything not in this deck, hear your priorities, and align on what success looks like in your words rather than ours.
The drop happened. You've absorbed it, you've kept the brand moving, and you've made the call to do something about it. Our job from here is to make the next six months feel different from the last six. Conservative where it needs to be, ambitious where it can be, transparent on everything in between.
You've made the decision. Our job now is to earn it. The next time we sit down in front of these numbers together, we want the conversation to be about which moments to lean into harder, not which problems to fix.